Kitov Pharmaceuticals (KTOV): The last mile of a long Journey

Little Kitov Pharmaceuticals (KTOV) debt free and with only 16M ADSs walked a long winded path to its FDA approval of Consensi. After achieving licensing deals in China and South Korea, shareholder are getting a little nervous about the last mile to redemption: The long awaited US deal.

Please read the Disclaimer / Disclosure first. You can find more about KTOV here.

Updates (Work In Progress Article)
– 2018-12-15 Initial Draft
– 2018-12-16 Added AGM + RS section (refined & fixed). Updated chart + price table, set image, added slides, added commercialization progress, emphasized Vimovo EU transaction valuing Consensi, added another RS short non-sense refutation
– 2018-12-17 Added NT219 Articles and Publications (more shall come); Summary: Added risk-off notion
– 2018-12-18 For latest published spreadsheet & pdf see latest posts in comment section
– 2018-12-20 Updated charts, latest spreadsheet pdf etc in comments. XBI/IBB @ 1Q17
– 2018-12-21 Refined case pro FDA approved drug usage, added comments
– 2019-01-04 PR 1/3/19: Kitov Signs Marketing and Distribution Agreement for Consensi™ in the U.S. with Coeptis Pharmaceuticals – Added sub in Commercialization, updated Summary; Added new higher valuation based on Coeptis 40-60% net profit royalties, see Valuation section w/ PDF + ODS spreadsheet
– 2019-01-04 Adapted 1 ADS = 1 Ordinary Share in spreadsheet, was 1 ADS = 20 Ordinary
– 2019-01-06 Updated Consensi Valuation model based on average gross margin 75% and current royalties
– 2019-01-08 Updated Consensi Valuation model: Matching Sales-Price;  Population, removed awareness (incl in market penetration), added 44% subgroup hypertension, using floor price $1.50/pill and expected price $3.29/pill. China sales price is also 33% minimum of US (Pfizer, GSK, ..). Adding NT219 value note of $30M or $1.15/sh fully diluted. Thanks for review and advice to David.
– 2019-01-11 Adding a more balanced conclusion from @feinsand to Chapter Summary

You can find KTOV’s latest presentation here.

Consensi

KIT-302, later branded as Consensi, is a combination NSAID targeting osteoarthritic patients who may also suffer from hypertension. Since both indications often occur in the elderly population, a survey even showed that 44% of adults are diagnosed with both. Consensi combines the COX-2 NSAID Celecoxib and the blood pressure lowering calcium-channel blocker Amlodipine. Using NSAIDs alone typically cause increased hypertension, therefor Consensi’s combination is very sensible. Company defined Consensi market size by osteoarthritic patients with hypertension, but knowing that hypertension is also caused by NSAID treatment increases the market size considerably.

KTOV’s patent protected novelty is the finding that the combination of both drugs resolves each component’s side-effects and together even reduce blood pressure more than Amlodipine alone while Celecoxib is the best in class NSAID.

Patients will benefit from this important finding tremendously. Even though the components can be purchased and digested separately, Consensi is patent protected through 2030 and its FDA approved benefits cannot be marketed for alternative drugs. Hence Doctors cannot orderly prescribe the components, foremost due to lack of patient’s safety and compliance.  There simply is no other FDA approved NSAID guaranteeing the benefits of Consensi. Off-label prescription of the generic components is a liability to the physician and not recommended by the FDA. Also see new comments.

Below KTOV quotes copied from EM’s 2017-10-27 ihub post and KTOV’s website.

Our combination is designed simultaneously to relieve pain caused by osteoarthritis and treat hypertension, which is one of the side effects of using NSAIDs for treating pain caused by osteoarthritis. Our strategy in developing KIT-302 is based on our belief that the added anti-hypertensive drug will decrease the side effect of increased hypertension typically caused by the use of NSAIDs alone.
To date, no combination drug exists that offers the combined treatment of pain caused by osteoarthritis and hypertension.

..

the FDA ordered the withdrawal of Bextra® by Pfizer and issued a Public Health Advisory in April 2005, requiring manufacturers of all prescription products containing NSAIDs to provide warnings regarding potential adverse cardiovascular events as well as life-threatening gastrointestinal events associated with the use of NSAIDs. Moreover, subsequent to an FDA advisory committee meeting in February 2005 that addressed the safety of NSAIDs, and, in particular, the cardiovascular risks of COX-2 selective NSAIDs, the FDA has indicated that long-term studies evaluating cardiovascular risk will be required to approve new NSAID products that may be used on an intermittent or chronic basis. We believe that KIT-302 has a competitive advantage over other drugs in the market because, as a COX-2 inhibitor, it has limited gastrointestinal side effects, and due to the addition of amlodipine besylate it is designed to address existing hypertension and the cardiovascular side effects of NSAIDs.

..

The trial data also showed that the favorable blood pressure effects of Consensi™ were present in all blood pressure variables measured in the study. Kitov determined that the blood pressure reduction synergy seen with combining celecoxib and amlodipine was present in daytime systolic blood pressure – the study’s primary efficacy endpoint. Based on the data, however, the blood pressure reduction synergy was also present with all other blood pressure variables and at all times of day – i.e. daytime diastolic blood pressure, nighttime systolic blood pressure, and nighttime diastolic blood pressure. Although celecoxib, when combined with amlodipine, appears to have a synergistic effect by lowering blood pressure, it lacks this effect when administered by itself.

..

Consensi™ may protect against the amlodipine side effect of causing fluid retention by the kidneys…. Phase III/IV clinical trial .. showed that Consensi™ improves renal function. 

On 2018-05-31 FDA Approves Kitov’s Consensi™ for Treatment of Osteoarthritis Pain and Hypertension, finally. This is an important detail, since the 2017 allegations even claimed that Consensi data was tainted and drug may not even work as advertised.

(November 2018 Presentation)

NT219

Besides Consensi, KTOV also has NT219 in their pipeline. NT219 prevents resistance to multiple anti-cancer drugs and will probably become the leading drug for KTOV in the future. Beside its cancer indication, NT219 also showed to be beneficial for brain diseases Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and Huntington’s. NT219 might become a blockbuster combo treatment for cancer patients and is surely worth separate articles.

(November 2018 Presentation)

NT219 Articles

NT219 Publications

Google Scholar and sciencedirect search results in

Stock Decline

Allegations of Trial Data Manipulation pre FDA approval

  • 2017-02-07 CEO arrested and released, misleading study results suspected; shares down 26% premarket, stock halted
  • 2017-02-09 ISA investigation centered on DMC associated with Phase 3 KIT-302 study
  • 2017-02-09 Nasdaq Scheduled Resumption in Kitov Pharmaceuticals Holdings Ltd
  • Stock reached a low of $1.27/ADS

In hindsight all allegations were refuted with the FDA approval of Consensi and the stock recovered some value thereafter.

Post FDA approval Slide

Only ISA continues with some minor investigation details and even requested assistance by the SEC to force Dr Waymack to release information. Stock dropped ~13% to $1.68/ADS on 2018-09-18 in a hysterical manner.

On 2018-12-14 stock dropped ~18% for no reason at all down to $0.915.

It has been observed that since FDA approval, KTOV surely became under short attack. Short interest (SI) peaked on 2018-09-14 and is declining ever since, therefor short positions cover in anticipation of a Consensi US deal while stock declines.

2018 AGM and TASE RS 1:20, Ordinary 1:1 ADS

On 12/19 is the 2018 Annual General Meeting (AGM) on 16:30 local or 9:30am EST.

2018 Annual General Meeting of the Shareholders of the Company to be held at the Company’s executive offices at One Azrieli Center, Round Tower, 19th Floor, Tel Aviv, Israel on Wednesday, December 19, 2018, at 4:30 p.m. local Israeli time.

Everybody talks about the votes, which shall not matter at all, nothing will change.

The reverse split (RS) 1:20 of the ordinary shares will align them to ADS 1:1 and on p27, KTOV explicitly stated that they like to enable indices on TASE being able to pick up ordinary shares again – requiring an ordinary SP of >= 0.50 NIS!

Our ADSs, listed for trading on the Nasdaq Capital Market, each currently represent 20 Ordinary Shares of the Company. Our Ordinary Shares are traded on the TASE, and presently trade for less that NIS 0.50 per Ordinary Share, the threshold at which our shares would be eligible for inclusion in certain TASE indices. Therefore, we seek the approval of the shareholders to effect a 1-for-20 (“1:20”) reverse share split of the Company’s Ordinary Shares and …
In addition, when the reverse share split is implemented, each ADS will represent one Ordinary Share, no par value, but there will be no effect on the number of ADSs held by any owner of ADSs.

What matters is that company might give an update on the AGM or right thereafter, hence it is understandable that certain parties spreading fear on silence before the probable turnaround. It wouldn’t surprise me if company releases positive news around the AGM and TASE RS timeframe to support the stock. Index ETFs buying KTOV ordinary shares may also lead to a certain uptick after the RS.

Some notorious shorts even claim that the RS on the ordinary shares (only) would be required to keep KTOV listed on TASE, that is non-sense.
KTOV would have been required to state such material risk in their proxy filing. Since they did not, there is no such risk. The bullish reason is simply by allowing the TASE index ETFs to add KTOV ordinary shares again above the 0.50 NIS threshold.

Evaluation

Combo-Drug Consensi has Tremendous Value

The utilized short thesis to allow them to cover their shares is quite simple, they accuse Consensi has no value since patients could simply take the cheaper drug components.

As already mentioned above, Consensi is patent protected through 2030 and it’s FDA approved benefits cannot be marketed for alternative drugs. Hence Doctors cannot orderly prescribe the components, foremost due to lack of patient’s safety and compliance. There simply is no other FDA approved NSAID guaranteeing the benefits of Consensi. Off-label prescription of the generic components is a liability to the physician and not recommended by the FDA. Besides, KTOV proved their novel combination through expensive FDA trials and that alone should support Consensi’s premium before it goes generic. Also see new comments.

Changshan Pharma also wouldn’t have paid $1M upfront cash if they didn’t believe Consensi has  a wide profitable market. They will pay additional $2.5M for regulatory and up to $6M for commercial milestones plus 12% net royalties.

Vimovo, also an NSAID combo drug, disproves the short thesis alone.

2018-11-07 HZNP 3Q18 Vimovo US sales $18.6M +24% YoY, reaching $100M annually soon
HZNP 3Q18 p14
– Vimovo sales in the US are increasing

Vimovo global annual sales near term target is $200M and Consensi is considered more valuable than Vimovo.

Vimovo’s Oct’18 EU Transaction Valuates Consensi

2018-10-30 $AZN sells to Grunenthal: Vimovo ex-US ex-JP $115M upfront + $17M = $132M, Nexium EU $700M
AZN 3Q18 Results p31
– 1H18 Nexium sales in Europe $121M;
– 1H18 Vimovo global sales ex-US ex-Japan $37M -> $74M annually
Just Vimovo EU upfront payment implies $7/ads for $KTOV share structure

Grunenthal is interested in all pain indications for Europe.

EU licensing by Grunenthal was just at 2x annual EU sales. Consensi multiple shall be higher for the US licensing.

Whatever it will be, this very recent EU Vimovo deal shows that even a miserable multiple is worth at least $7/ads for KTOV.

Consensi Commercialization Progress

Below shows three slides regarding Consensi (KIT-302) commercialization progress from June’17, March’18 and November’18.

  • June’17: South-Korea Deal, Ongoing discussion w/ US + EU
  • March’18: South-Korea Deal, Ongoing discussion w/ US + China
    • China negotiations added
    • EU negotiations dropped, no mentioning of deal (yet?)
  • November’18: South-Korea + China Deal, Ongoing discussion w/ US
    • China deal done
    • Waiting for US deal
    • What happened w/ EU? Grunenthal?
  • January’19: South-Korea + China + US Deal

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US deal done with Coeptis Pharmaceuticals

The US deal with Coeptis Pharmaceuticals was in line with with South-Korea and China, i.e. relative small upfront payment – here even smaller than China and a relative high royalty. Market was expecting a higher upfront payment above $50M for the US deal to avoid an upcoming funding round to push NT219 forward, this wasn’t realized with the Coeptis deal. Since royalties with Coeptis are for net profits only, Kitov might not see these in the first quarter due to initial marketing costs. Coeptis reduced its investment risk with this deal, while Kitov could enjoy long term high royalties of 40-60% net profits if profitable. One might need to believe in the US commercialization outcome, this is no get rich quick scheme yet. However, the high 40-60% net profit royalties allows a higher valuation than previously assumed 12% royalty on net sales. 50% royalties on net profit (EBITDA) equals to around 22.5% of gross sales, with an industry average of only 14.7%. This deal is 53% above the average! Upfront one-time payments have little impact on valuation, only long term revenues.

Coeptis Pharmaceuticals is also a relatively small private company for growth which just recently acquired Elto Pharma 2018-11-27. On 2018-11-28 Coeptis raised $18M, probably to pay for the acquisition of Elto and for launching the newly licensed drugs, like Consensi.

In November 2017, Coeptis Pharmaceuticals signed a Multi-product Co-development Agreement with Ciron including manufacturing, with initial value of above $100M sales. Hence they probably use them for Consensi CMC as well. Quite a well connected growing pharma biz. Details about Ciron’s manufacturing capabilities (CMC) includes USFDA and EU compliance.

multi-product agreement with Ciron Drugs & Pharmaceuticals Pvt. Ltd (Mumbai, India) under which Coeptis and Ciron expect to develop and commercialize several ANDAs. Under the terms of the agreement, Ciron will develop, manufacture, and supply the selected products exclusively to Coeptis for the U.S. market, and Coeptis will market and distribute the products under its label. The initial agreement includes a basket of products with annual U.S. brand sales of more than $100 Million USD, according to IMS Health data.

Consensi Valuation

On 2018-06-19 HC Wainwright gave their last buy PT of $12.50/sh.
Their earlier analysis included a NT219 value of $30M or $1.154 per fully diluted share today.

All references are available at the end of this article and in the PDF file.

Below table (discussed in comment 252 using data from Borshell2010) shows 75% average gross profit (GP) margins and Coeptis 50% net profit royalties being 53% above industry average 14.7% gross sales royalties.

(link to image)

All per share numbers are based on fully diluted shares or ADS of 26.004M.

Up until today, the WAC sales price is not yet disclosed for any region. China sales price minimum is 33% of US price lately, but could be 50% or higher.

The sales price is also subject of our longest and ongoing debate, i.e. how much lower than the branded Celebrex $6.5380/pill and how much higher than the two heavily discounted generic components $0.3719/pill can it be?

We were advised to compare the rebates of Vimovo and Celebrex and using the rebated price as the maximum possible. We also should only expect 50% of these rebated prices in our model. We went further and took another ~50% cut to mark the absolute floor price. David, a pharma sales manager helped us to find the appropriate perspective. He also emphasized that probably no pharma would start this process for less than $100M annual sales, even $200M would be a no-go for many already and should be used as a constraint. You can see the result in the below table, where we also compared each brand combo drug with their respective generic component(s).

(link to image)

Therefor we settle for the US prices as follows: Maximum $4.1407/pill, the expected $3.2877/pill and floor $1.50/pill.

Next step is to quantify the OA population size. OA% of adult population is roughly 14% or 11% of overall population, the US has even 36% OA cases referenced for the adult population in one publication. For China we only use 11% for now, around 120M patients, which is due to their lower awareness. The resulting number is the diagnosed OA population, which trend is still upwards.

We only use the 44% hypertension sub-population of the OA population to be on the safe side, even though taking NSAID’s for OA over a long period could increase or cause  hypertension and hence this group could be at 100% in the end. The resulting number is the market-size population.

Now we apply a very low conservative market penetration of only 3%, we would expect 6-9% might be possible, leading to 2-3x of below valuations. The resulting numbers are actual patients, sales and KTOV earnings. We did that for all three price ranges as emphasized above.

Maximum Price of $4.1407/pill

This results to $18.852/sh for China & South-Korea and $37.253/sh for the US, $56.11/sh in total @ P/E 10 including a 10% discount. This Consensi valuation is 8x of Grunenthal’s Oct’18 acquisition of Vimovo EU rights (ex-US and ex-JP). As emphasized above, this valuation should be considered the absolute lucky maximum.

(link to image)

Expected Price of $3.2877/pill

This results to $14.97/sh for China & South-Korea and $29.58/sh for the US, $44.55/sh in total @ P/E 10 including a 10% discount. This Consensi valuation is 6x of Grunenthal’s Oct’18 acquisition of Vimovo EU rights (ex-US and ex-JP).

(link to image)

Floor Price of $3.2877/pill

This results to $6.83/sh for China & South-Korea and $13.50/sh for the US, $20.33/sh in total @ P/E 10 including a 10% discount. This Consensi valuation is 3x of Grunenthal’s Oct’18 acquisition of Vimovo EU rights (ex-US and ex-JP).

(link to image)

Further more, the model also shows that if Consensi would be sold at just the same price of discounted generics at $0.3719/pill, the US deal alone is worth $3.35/sh or $5.04/sh with CN+SK in total! (Case included in spreadsheet)

Also available: PDF file and ODS Spreadsheet

NASDAQ / TASE Price Dislocation

Above elaboration about short players and the following NASDAQ vs TASE price action makes clear that the short attack originates from the US. Most of the time NASDAQ is traded below the TASE price, often even exceeding -4% and at peaks -10% or less.

(link to image)

(link to image)

 

Summary w/ Catalysts

Kitov managed to achieve the FDA approval for Conensi while being heavily under attack with allegations that even Consensi trial data might have been tainted.
Just days before FDA approval and before the class action settlement agreement, Kitov also managed to get the new deal with China.
Today, Kitov got the US deal done with Coeptis roughly 53% over industry average royalties and the settlement with the accusing party which will be formally closed in January 2019.
We like to congratulate Kitov for acting persistent & sovereign while being under pressure. This especially, because Kitov is not a big company with lots of counselors and lawyers, but run by just a few leading heads.

Adding a more balanced conclusion from @feinsand & I agree

Now we know, Coeptis
– May IPO 2H19
– Consensi 2H19 launch date
– Doing biz with Generic Drug sales
– Relationship with Kamadum (sic, too lazy too look up)

We also know that China’s Changshan must pass one CFDA trial to cover the Chinese population w/ Consensi.
Therefor they maybe able to launch in 2H19 the earliest or in 1H20.

All this directs us to believe that the earliest cash infusions will come up in 2H19 or more towards the end of 2019.
That is a normal timeline.

Coeptis may go for a low Consensi price to please insurance and markets, maybe around $1.50 to get Tier 1 formulary access.
That wouldn’t be too bad.

Now the only thing missing here might be a biz update from company, the horse’s mouth to confirm all that and also clarify whether a tiny offering is required to bridge the time until Consensi revenues trickle in.

Hope this is a fair assessment, also talking about the relatively small risk of a potential offering and modest stretched timeline for the impatient (o8>

Consensi is an almost risk-off investment today with FDA approval and deals in South-Korea, China and the US. May additionally get a deals for Europe, Australia and Canada.

  • Priced below Consensi Approval and NT219 Ownership
  • Priced at FDA refuted Consensi data falsification allegations on July’17 $1.27/sh
  • Coeptis launch in 2H19, might match $1.50/pill floor price for Generics Tier 1 Class
  • Consensi: SP $6.83 floor – $14.97 expected for China + Korea
  • Consensi: SP $13.50 floor – $29.57 expected for US -> $20.33 – $44.55 total
  • Consensi: Evaluating additional commercialization agreements in major markets worldwide (PR 2019-01-03).
  • Changshan paid $1M (May’18) and will pay additional $2.5M for regulatory and up to $6M for commercial milestones
  • Changshan in CFDA process, which is a formality lately, expected until end of 2019, launch 2H19 or 1H20.
  • Changshan & Korea 12% Net Sales Royalties -> 9% Gross Sales Royalties.
  • US Coeptis 40-60% Net Profit Royalties -> 22.50% Gross Sales Royalties.
  • NT219: $30M or $1.15/sh minimum should be added here as well.
  • 2018-11-13 Slides: NT219 Favorable FDA response pre-IND, IND in 2019 w/ partners (solid prelim interest in NT219)
  • 2018-11-13 Slides: NT219 One more patent expected.
  • 2018-06-19 HC Wainwright last Buy PT $12.50/ads
  • 2018-06-01 Last offering 3.26M @ $2.50/ads
  • FDA Exclusivity until 2021-05-31
  • U.S. Patent 9,408,837: Filed 2011-02-14; Granted 2016-08-09; Term until 2031-02-14
  • U.S. Patent 9,662,315: Filed 2015-11-10; Granted 2017-05-30; Term until 2035-11-10

(November 2018 Presentation)

References

  1. Discount rates in drug development 2011 http://www.avance.ch/avance_biostrat_discount_survey.pdf
  2. Discount Rates for Biotech Companies 2008 http://www.avance.ch/newsletter/docs/discount_1.pdf
  3. Valuation of Your Early Drug Candidate 2011 https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.michbio.org/resource/resmgr/BioToolBox_-_Commercialization/Valuation_of_Drug_Candidate.pdf
  4. KTOV.TA https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financial-highlights/KTOV.TA (also shows industry + sector multiples)
  5. 2015 Celecoxib China https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/investigation-report-on-chinas-celecoxib-market-2010-2019-featuring-pfizer–shire-300124782.html
  6. In 2014, 10M of 100M OA patients used Celecoxib. Pfizer covered 98% Sales of CNY165.31M or $25.76M
  7. 2016 OA China http://m.chinadaily.com.cn/en/2016-04/27/content_24891108.htm
  8. OA Epidemiology https://patient.info/doctor/osteoarthritis-pro#nav-0 11% hip OA and 24% knee OA in general-adult-population
  9. 23% US adults doctor-diagnosed A https://www.cdc.gov/publichealthgateway/townhall/2017/downloads/03-mar-presentation.pdf
  10. US 63M w/ A. In 2020 https://www.cdc.gov/arthritis/data_statistics/national-statistics.html
  11. https://www.arthritis.org/Documents/Sections/About-Arthritis/arthritis-facts-stats-figures.pdf
  12. Royalty Comparison incl GP and SG&A Averages https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057%2Fjcb.2009.13
  13. Pfizer Brand $6.54/pill (180 qty, 200mg) https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/celebrex
  14. Generic Celebrex $0.2919/pill (500 qty, 200mg) https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/celecoxib
  15. Generic Amlodipine $0.08/pill (500 qty, 5mg) https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/amlodipine
  16. Vimovo Brand $43.33/pill 20mg/375mg-500mg https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/vimovo (delayed release)
  17. Generic Naproxen $0.7777/pill (500 qty, 500mg) https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/naproxen (delayed release)
  18. Generic Esomeprazole $0.82/pill (90 qty, 20mg) https://www.drugs.com/price-guide/esomeprazole (delayed release)
  19. Population 0-19: China 23%, Europe 20.8%, US 25.4% https://www.livepopulation.com/country/china.html
  20. Demographics Age 0-19: China 22.7%, Europe 21%, US 25.1% https://www.populationpyramid.net/united-states-of-america/2019/

72 thoughts on “Kitov Pharmaceuticals (KTOV): The last mile of a long Journey”

  1. 2019-01-08 Updated Consensi Valuation model: Matching Sales-Price; Population, removed awareness (incl in market penetration), added 44% subgroup hypertension, using floor price $1.50/pill and expected price $3.29/pill. China sales price is also 33% minimum of US (Pfizer, GSK, ..). Adding NT219 value note of $30M or $1.15/sh fully diluted. Thanks for review and advice to David.

    Like

  2. Valuation of Coeptis .. just a starter .. https://www.biospace.com/article/coeptis-pharma-to-buy-elto-pharma/
    I claimed earlier, they are worth at least $1B – yes it is a private company w/ shareholders.

    Just from these known two deals:

    Ciron will develop and manufacture several drugs exclusively for Coeptis to market in the U.S. under its label. According to IMS Health, the drugs have a total U.S. sales of more than $100 million.

    and

    In June, it updated plans to raise capital for Elto Pharma. An independent third-party valuation valued eltoprazine in the U.S. and Europe at $316 million.
    ..
    the value of eltoprazine in PD-LID alone in the U.S. and Europe at approximately 30x the entire current market capitalization of Amarantus.

    That would be conservatively:
    3x $100M Ciron produced drug sales + $316M Elto = $616M already.

    One may add Consensi 3x $150M and we are at $1066M

    Will do this in more detail, however it is evident that Coeptis is a fast growing pharma company.
    At this day I am quite unsure myself whether they are more like a biotech broker or a hot growing pharmaceutical.
    Bottom line for KTOV’s Consensi neither Coeptis nor Changshan paid the upfront cash just for fun
    and both expect at least around $150M in sales and at least 45% in profits before royalties.

    Like

    1. Coeptis IR stated that Consensi is only 1/10 drugs they have to claim their future valuation upon.
      For now they expect only around $350M revenue within the next 2 years and hope for an IPO within 2H19, where they also intend to launch Consensi sales.
      FBP @ ST posted as summary of his Coeptis IR interview

      All this sounds more modest than too exciting at this stage, since it implies Consensi revenues well below $100M at launch time and raises the question about an upcoming offering again, if they have no other cash injection.
      Changshan being ready with Consensi end of 2019 or 1H20 is also not really helping at this point.

      Bottom line, expecting meaningful profits trickling in within 1H20 (maybe starting 4Q19) may explain the lack of enthusiasm trading KTOV and its still very low valuation.
      Hopefully KTOV is able to get their act together and give investors a more material company update soon.

      Like

      1. Hi, I have read your analysis repeatly, I fell it is the best I have ever seen
        In regard to KTOV. Thank you very much.
        Per your request, I own other bios as below. Pls keep PNC
        AKBA, AVXL, ABEO, BVXV, CBIO, EYEG, GALT, LPCN
        NBRV, NVIV. NVAX.
        Comments are welcome on this board finesand only.
        Rgds
        KE

        Like

  3. Yes, so it goes. Stock is hardly traded today, fragile as ever but up.
    Surely many sold the news, that is no news.
    More so seem to like to exit above $1.10 creating a wall TASE more closer to $1,
    which is funny having NSDQ being traded at a higher price. It happens so rare.

    Let’s see what they manage about Consensi price and tier.
    If lucky, they can avoid an offering at this price – which is still around ATL.
    Tough to change sentiment.

    Like

  4. On 2019-01-15 KTOV released news ‘New Data on Kitov’s NT219 Demonstrates its Unique Mechanism of Action and Anti-Cancer Effect’ https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/01/15/1691707/0/en/New-Data-on-Kitov-s-NT219-Demonstrates-its-Unique-Mechanism-of-Action-and-Anti-Cancer-Effect.html

    – NT219 is a first-in-class drug candidate with high affinity and selectivity to its target proteins
    – Data show that even a short exposure of cancerous cells to NT219 was sufficient to trigger irreversible shutdown of cancer pathways, resulting in a long-term anti-cancer effect
    – NT219 has blockbuster potential in multiple oncology indications

    Stock went ‘to the moon’ almost touched $3, well ..

    On 2019-01-16 ‘Kitov Announces Pricing of $6 Million Registered Direct Offering’ https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/01/16/1700871/0/en/Kitov-Announces-Pricing-of-6-Million-Registered-Direct-Offering.html

    That didn’t take too long, didn’t it?
    3.43M Shares at $1.75 plus 2.57M Warrants @ $2 strike, the latter being the real pill of bitterness
    as it acts like a hedge for shorts.

    So what were the NT219 news here actually?

    Hadas Reuveni, Ph.D., Chief Technology Officer at Kitov’s subsidiary, TyrNovo Ltd., in collaboration with Dr. Galia Blum and Dr. Ofra Moshel from the Hebrew University demonstrated that NT219 binds directly to Insulin Receptor Substrates (IRS) 1/2 and to the Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 3 (STAT3), both known modulators of tumor survival, metastasis and drug resistance. Data showed that a short exposure of cancerous cells to NT219 was sufficient to trigger irreversible shutdown of these pathways, resulting in a long-term anti-cancer effect.

    Based on these latest findings, Kitov and Yissum, the Technology Transfer company of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, have extended their collaboration agreement in order to deepen the understanding of NT219’s efficacy in overcoming tumors’ resistance to immunotherapy.

    Wasn’t this cancer activity already known?
    From a scientific standpoint this news item is meaningless without being able to compare the respective papers documenting the NT219 progress. Has any progress being made?

    KTOV needs to work on transparency: Release all NT219 data, posters – show the papers (or references). Show Coeptis roadmap. Period.
    NT219 ‘news’ w/o showing the data in combo with today’s offering is surely suspicious for a pump job. We have to see how it goes from here

    This suspicion is sadly supported by the desperate offering below the last offering price in mid 2018 at $2.50/sh.
    They seemingly couldn’t wait for market to confirm said progress for a higher price appreciation?
    Company had enough cash for a few more months.

    On the other hand, in general, this offering is not too big – but the $2 Warrant ceiling will be hard to overcome.
    We have to see who bought into this offering, genuine investors or – again – Sabby and the likes?
    Investing is not easy these day .. that’s for sure.
    Gladly the trades from December to yesterday where quite profitable.

    Bottom line, we have to research for the NT219 data and papers to see how material the news actually were,
    or if the suspicion is warranted and they were only made to perform this stock offering.

    Like

  5. I too am trying to understand the rush for more funding. It is hard to gather why they would do this unless they don’t foresee any milestone payments in the near term. If this is the case, it is very concerning. With 3 PRs in the first two weeks of the new year is a change of pace and hopefully, it continues. Next up is the official close of the lawsuit, which should be a non-event but who knows. And then hopefully some other goods news comes before the Annual Report is released in early March. But I saw today’s filing by the enemy Sabby is making a reappearance which has me gloomy. Wouldn’t buy any more until they are out, their timing is too eerily perfect. :/

    Liked by 2 people

    1. Yes, see above. Desperate & suspicious.
      Thx for your contribution.

      I wouldn’t be too surprised now if both gap ups would be closed. That is sadly how they operate.
      I also commented on the Consensi commercialization timeline above, it will take a while from here.

      Like

  6. Our Little Sabby Theory ..

    Our little theory is they got involved before the last news in a more holistic financing manner.

    Brought the stock price up with the news, it needs some strong initial and sustaining buying to do that, which failed w/ Coeptis partnership news.

    Then they short at their will on the top, which is easy to know, b/c they simply stop supporting the move up.
    Then the pre-negotiated offering which they also buy a chunk of it, the Warrants as a hedge.

    Then they terrorize the chart at their will, maybe ‘just’ back to square one or maybe higher/lower – whenever they are done and showing no position.
    Last year it took a very long time until they completed their mission: $3 -> $0.60 or so.
    First we thought ‘no position’ in their 13-F filing signaled completion – we were all wrong, since their sub ‘volatility fund’ was not included.

    The rest is history.

    Interesting to know, they sued MBOT months earlier for not being able to have delivered enough shares (probably for their short strategy or covering). Don’t know how that ended.

    So, whenever Sabby is out and good sentiment returns is – stock can recover. They surely don’t do this for just one week or little gains.
    IMHO best to have stock crash hard and fast with volume, so they are satisfied and its done quickly.

    GL

    Like

  7. It will certainly be interesting to see how much damage Sabby can create. It is a different story this time with US partnership no longer in doubt. Hopefully, the stock reaches a price level where value investors come pouring unlike what happened in 2018. Having an extra 6 million of the books shouldn’t drop this to the extreme lows. It would awesome if management were to offer some sort of guidance once Coeptis numbers start to become clearer.

    Like

    1. It depends when Sabby is done with their action and when sentiment is about to return.
      2018 took a very long time, as we all know – sadly (or happily, depends how you see it).

      If Sabby has a backchannel to KTOV as assumed (hence their almost perfect timing),
      it should be over when material news come along with NT219, read: data data data data
      Best a peer reviewed published paper and/or a poster at least at a conference,
      which this time will be shown to the public. Best: Show all previous posters.
      This cannot be too hard, or can it?
      For now, we only have older papers visible but not for all, since they are behind the ‘scientific paywall’.
      At least we can say, the old papers are promising – but now they need to show the new data.

      Like

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